I have no doubt that central banks and governments are afraid. But, when he starts his writing with "I'm a trained economist with a B.S. in Computer Science, a M.S. in Operations Research, and a PhD in Econometrics" that almost guarantees that his "employer" could figure out who he is instantly, yet he claims he wants to remain anonymous. Thats a pretty rare combo of degrees. To me, it makes me
VERY skeptical of this story
yes, it's probably bogus, but the fact that it seems plausible at first sight is good enough for me :-)
Actually I would believe this. In any paper you write, informal or not, you have to give your credentials and why people should listen to you. Pretty rare combo, sure.. The US government does not just hire anyone that "applies" - often they come to you. But yes, I am sure it is rare enough to single out who it is. But you have to realize it is probably not a big enough story to make the government "research" to figure out who he was. Now if he published the report and etc, than I am sure he would have to be a lot more anonymous.
The US government (IRS) has ruled BTC as property mainly for tax reasons. For them to even talk about something, research had to be done at some point. Truth or not, I am sure this has happened, and really - is it that hard to believe the government would try to hide something??