Overall, my point is there is nothing to explain why p2pool could come out ahead of any other pool with equal fees for the average user. If you have a large enough hashrate for the variance to not be so bad, you'll come out even. If you have a REALLY large hashrate you'll come out ahead if you use your own node because merged mining proceeds. If you're a small miner, variance will likely hurt you.
Don't get me wrong. I like p2pool. I like the concept. But statements like "you'll come out ahead with p2pool" I take issue with.
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There are a few reasons p2pool might be better for a given miner then other pools, for example there is an edge for the miner who maintains a stale/DOA rate lower then the pool average.
But that really was not my point what I said (and you quoted) was "I still believe p2pools payout will be higher over time then any other pool." and I do believe that. You asked me to substantiate my belief and I did. As I stated, its my belief, I'm not claiming it to be a fact, and I certainly never said "you'll come out ahead with p2pool", your results may vary.