Ninjastic
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
blade87
on 17/08/2014, 16:48:49 UTC
Quote from: ShroomsKit on August 17, 2014, 03:55:57 PM
Quote from: blade87 on August 17, 2014, 03:06:05 PM
Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on August 17, 2014, 02:33:13 PM
Quote from: Patel on August 17, 2014, 02:29:57 PM
Bubble's flight has been delayed. Scheduled arrival: November
These are my thoughts exactly.  If a new bubble/rally ever comes that is.

Yes if. I wonder the same. Because if everyone is expecting another bubble, can one happen, at least so soon? It's like the perfect trap. And the longer the delay, the worse things will get in this market. It's looking by the end of September, if we're either going to be at $500-$550 (right on target to approach the next bubble) or somewhere around $400 and looking to fall below that.

At some point this bubble trend will break and when it does it's going to be a long bear market. The last two bubbles did have some very large sell offs before they began (as in very temporarily breaking the long term trend) so it's just so hard to predict right now.

What bubble trend? We are already in a bear market. We have been for 8 months now.

Convert the entire price history of BTC into log scale and you will see. There are 3 very giant steps (bubbles) that have occurred with BTC periodically. We are right about now crossing the long term low trend line of all of it. This is what pretty much everyone is expecting - that BTC will bounce soon (sometime within the next 2 months) and begin a new giant step somewhere to $2000-$5000. But the majority reasoning is that "because it has happened before it will continue to happen" type of mentality is not good reasoning.

With that said BTC has had some great adoption this past year, so I am leaning towards it will happen again, as I hardly consider a few companies accepting BTC anywhere near full potential adoption. BUT, every single past bubble has had a major sell off that occurred right before it took off. That's why it's going to be so damn hard to predict and get right no matter what happens over the next month.