Of course I don't know, But it stands to reason that if supply remains constant and the block reward is halved the price should approximately double.
I'd like to think this is the case, and I'm quite certain that people who understand how mining works would view it as such, but I think the value may depend on how quickly people are looking for large quantities that will affect the value in relation to the rate at which the coins are produced.
Of course I don't know, But it stands to reason that if supply remains constant and the block reward is halved the price should approximately double.
If people are set on buying X dollars worth of coins every day regardless of dollar price then a double makes sense (with some other probably false assumptions). But if people want X coins it all depends on their elasticity of demand and it could be a much bigger increase. I think the first is much closer to the truth, but I think that in addition to a supply decrease we'll experience a demand increase over the next year (and the next and next and next...).
Good points. I don't say these things with great confidence. We will be entering untested water when the reward halves.