there was a particularly bad piece of news on Bitcoin that came out on 5/19 that i had no way of knowing would happen.  very sorry silverbox.

you can't possibly know all the fundamental factors involved that go into the price of gold.  

this is why technical analysis is so important.

An interesting audio interview: Why are people so eager to make predictions?  because there's no consequence for making wrong predictions.

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/08/09/pm-freakonomics-why-are-we-so-bad-at-predicting-the-future/