you can't possibly know all the fundamental factors involved that go into the price of gold. this is why technical analysis is so important.
Of course. I can't possibly know
all the factors to predict the weather. But I can be pretty much sure that there will be summer after a spring.
I was going to address your winter boots comment to suggest now is the best time to buy them since demand is minimal, but you seem to want to avoid that discussion since you removed that part of your post

.
Indeed, I got the added second sentence (about not buying winter boots nowadays) removed, after I had the first one answered.