Yeah I know the pattern, yet every time I read those "arguments" it reminds me of that parabel with the hen.

The hen wakes up in the morning. Sees the sun and expects it to be like this every day. For a while it is. Hen wakes up, sees sun, goes to sleep in the evening. One morning however the hen wakes up, sees the sun and the farmer shops its head off.
"It has been like this" is not an argument for the future.