I think it's entirely possible we could flash crash down as low as 420 within the next 2-3 weeks, ending the week of the crash above 540. It's also possible we could stay flat for 2-3 weeks. Either way, when we break above 685, we're on our way to a new ATH. I expect to revisit the last ATH in about 7 weeks, and be at our new ATH about 4 weeks after that.
You think that the market could handle going down to $420 and then charge right back up to a new ATH? If we go down to $420, then we will be looking for a new ATL for 2014.
A price change of similar magnitude happened the week of 9/25/2013, after the weekly MACD turned green. It was the ultimate bear trap before the big rise. It sounds like such price action would likely pull you into the bear trap.