Technical analysis is bullshit. I only look at the fundamentals.

There's nothing that can drive Bitcoin back to its ATH, or anywhere near it. Willybot's manipulation games were the specific historical circumstances that drove the November 2013 rally.

Look at the statistics of user adoption, and you'll see that BTC is declining. It's not as high up in Google searchtrends as it used to be, and the Average Joe is smart enough to stay away from this speculative pyramid scheme. Meanwhile, increased merchant adoption is obviously driving price down, an undeniable fact noted by every knowledgeable observer.

The Winklevii ETF is already priced in. When insiders learn that the ETF won't be approved, they'll start dumping their coins. The price will plummet, and the cultist permabulls will panic sell until BTC settles at 250ish prices. Shortly after that, it'll bounce up to 370 or so.

Bitcoin is not going to zero anytime soon, but it's in a bear market and will stay there for the unforeseeable future, whether the cultists like it or not.

But BTC is quite good for short-term trading.