But this bear market -- the longest one ever -- threatens that as well.
It's not the longest. In 2011 there was a much longer period.
No. Check the charts. Peak in June 2011 --> bottom in November. 6 months.
We are going on 9 months of bear market in the current cycle.
It all depends on what comes next and how you look at the charts.
The uptrend from around 450 to around 680 in may (<---
6 month of previous downtrend cycle) could be a phase one of the new 6-month cycle and right now we are just having a pull back.
...Or you could be right, but longer time per cycle doe not mean there are non. They (cycles) could be simply "in scale" so to speak.