I would pretty much count on having a capitulation event this time around! I don't really feel the July '13 sell-off was quite capitulatory (call me George dub-a-ya 
) in nature. It was more of just plain old, panic driven irrationality... A reaction to the fall back to Earth. That was the first time we were ever above $32 let alone in the Hundreds! Traders wanted to take some profit off the table and were NOT going to miss those prices.
) in nature. It was more of just plain old, panic driven irrationality... A reaction to the fall back to Earth. That was the first time we were ever above $32 let alone in the Hundreds! Traders wanted to take some profit off the table and were NOT going to miss those prices.Have to say, this part of your post scares the shit out of me.
Especially coming from a competent analyst whose posts I appreciate a lot.
It kinda reads like you expect a capitulation below $32, or below $100 at least.
No he didn't say that. Although a very bearish scenario is possible in which the last 1 / 27 of wave C is a death spiral, and drops to about 100$,
it is very unlikely IMO. Currently my guesstimate for the despondency stage (real bottom) is about 280$ and the second half of October.
As for the July 2013 bottom, that capitulation was mild because the trading happened in a narrow range: after a harsh wave A, the trapped / fake
fiat on MtGox (still leading) provided support and even made the market look bullish for a while (local bottoms: 50$, 80$, 90$ then drop to 65$).