I would pretty much count on having a capitulation event this time around! I don't really feel the July '13 sell-off was quite capitulatory (call me George dub-a-ya 
) in nature. It was more of just plain old, panic driven irrationality... A reaction to the fall back to Earth. That was the first time we were ever above $32 let alone in the Hundreds! Traders wanted to take some profit off the table and were NOT going to miss those prices.
) in nature. It was more of just plain old, panic driven irrationality... A reaction to the fall back to Earth. That was the first time we were ever above $32 let alone in the Hundreds! Traders wanted to take some profit off the table and were NOT going to miss those prices.Have to say, this part of your post scares the shit out of me.
Especially coming from a competent analyst whose posts I appreciate a lot.
It kinda reads like you expect a capitulation below $32, or below $100 at least.
When I say "count on capitulation" it definitely does not mean $32. But it does mean there is a good possibility of going low $300's and more. I realize that a break of $266 seems very bearish to a forum that believes Bitcoin is dead if we go below the previous ATH. This is because it never happened before, but I assure you that it is a typical corrective target (4th wave of a lesser degree) and it isn't as bad as many make it out to be. I DO NOT see double digits as even slightly likely. Possible? Yes, but definitely not likely.
Edit:
The determining factor in where the bottom of capitulation occurs lies in the support. If support is lost, we drop through to the next support.
Low 300s!? Damn I better start saving up, even low 400s is something I never thought we'd see again.