Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.
What is your opinion on the effect of BTC continuing
lower? In the past few weeks we've seen BTC give up 600 after staying roughly in that range for a while (since May), and now it seems it might be giving up 500. I wonder what the effect of this might have on Monero.
Well personally it has made me buy more of it.. don't know about the others

Perhaps this is a rationalized response to the primal urge to sell BTC, which cannot be done due to my resolution of not selling below 3000. Switching to something that is still crypto, has things going, and is going up, is not strictly breaking of the promise, right?

Are you open to disclosing the order of magnitude of Monero you own? (as you have for Bitcoin).
Of course, feel free to ignore my question (I personally would not disclose it in the public forum).
Well, the following statement does not give any new information to the NSA as it is only parsed from public sources with necessary conversions:
- With Bitcoin, I have always since 2012-1-1 owned more than
BTC2,400 although always less than
BTC35,000.
- With Monero, I own more than 30,000 XMR but less than 227,000 XMR.
The usual "taxman disclaimer": "I" probably does not mean any entity that you can tax.