What?? Bears infesting my thread? 
The correct way to value BTC is to take a scenario analysis:
The correct way to value BTC is to take a scenario analysis:
* The price of LTC is $4.9290
* LTC will have 4 x the supply of BTC
* Thus, the value of LTC should be BTC/4.
* The fair value of BTC could therefore be LTC/USD * 4
4.9290 * 4 = $19.7
It seems to me that (with the caveat that better investments such as Monero may be available) I should invest everything that I can afford to lose.
Kelly formula: With essentially infinite payoff, invest same % as is the probability of success = 20%. (Kelly is valid if B automatically leads to loss of entire investment, and is higher if this is not the case.)
My suggestion: 50% of investment capital in crypto, of which the %-age of Monero should approach 50% if the sum is very small but be much less if the sum is significant.
Kelly formula: With essentially infinite payoff, invest same % as is the probability of success = 20%. (Kelly is valid if B automatically leads to loss of entire investment, and is higher if this is not the case.)
My suggestion: 50% of investment capital in crypto, of which the %-age of Monero should approach 50% if the sum is very small but be much less if the sum is significant.
My suggestion: Short the rallies, avoid buying back on dips.