Please note I qualified my post saying it was targeted to those who need cash within 6 - 12 months. I wasn't asserting anything about the long-term risk vs. reward analysis.

Near-term risk is limited to the upside, and greater to the downside. Last time we had this discussion @ $600, Bitcoin came down to $350 just as I expected. I could end up wrong this time, but I am having difficulty finding  a catalyst to the upside near-term and the downside risk is potentially revisiting $350 or breaking through to lower lows as silver did.

As Armstrong says, don't fight the market. Let it speak to you. Fundamentals apply long-term, but not short-term. Just the same as for silver, all the perma-bulls have to be wiped out before a bottom is achieved. Don't ever get married to an investment.

So my post should not have made you angry if you read it carefully.


Long-term (up to 3 years or more), I place 1% probability on $1 million, 10% probability on $100,000, 20% probability on $50,000, and 80% probability on $10,000.

So my risk vs. reward calculation for the long-term differs significantly from yours, but it is not bearish and I wouldn't advise long-term hodlers to sell except to diversify into any suitable faster growing alternatives in market cap weighted proportions.

The dollar and the US stocks look more attractive between now and 2015.75 and will maybe be pulling capital out of Bitcoin.