One important question that I have yet to see answered is how the claims are to be computed.
Many clients seem to assume that the amount they can claim is simply the BTC and currency balances in their MtGOX account, by the time the site was shut down (or at some earlier date).
However, some people who claim to be familiar with bankruptcy cases have claimed that the standard procedure in such cases is to ignore the balances (which are fictitious anyway, since they are the result of trading coins and money that did not exist), and define a client's claim instead as being only the amounts he deposited minus the amounts he withdrew, summed over all time, converting BTC to JPY by the market price at the moment of deposit or withdrawal.
Obviously the two methods will give very different results. A client who has a huge claim under one interpretation may be excluded under the other, and vice-versa.
Was any information offered recently about which method will be followed by Mr. Kobayashi?
No, nothing, so far as I know. We have already discussed this point on Gox Self-help some time ago. It has been shown that probably a majority favor the "last balance" solution. This also fits well with your assessment. We had agreed so far:
"The remaining assets in Bitcoins should be distributed to creditors
proportionately to their final Bitcoin balance (as seen on mtgox.com).
The remaining assets in legal currency (FIAT) should be distributed to
creditors proportionately to their final currency balance (as seen on
mtgox.com)."
https://wiki.olivere.de/goxwiki/ClaimsGoxSelfHelp(Auth needed)
There are a lot pro and cons but overall - I think - every other solution would be much more complicated and would be perceived as unfair by the most people. That will not fly by. People want the 200,000 coins divided fair. People want there money and Bitcoin is money.
I had my Bitcoins almost two years on Gox. I was a Newbie and Gox was my wallet. I was happy with Gox, because they had very early a Yubikey and a very good HMAC based API. And they were big. And they were organized in the Bitcoin Foundation, were I'm also became a lifetime member. So I felt save even if I had only little knowledge about Bitcoin in this time. Gox gave me a feeling of guaranty in an uncertain environment. Sure, I was naive. So I lost nearly 200 coins. Nearly all I had. Gox was simply my main wallet. By trading and some panic (yes, I was a lousy trader) I had even lost coins. However, not much, maybe 20%. But that was completely okay for me, because it was really my fault and I've learned a lot from it about myself and about trading. In FIAT currency I have lost nothing. I think many have a similar position. But the lost Bitcoins hurt me very much. I'll fight like a tiger for my coins. You'll see.