Or it might hit a painful sub 100 and stay there for years. not out of the realm of possibilities.
I don't think it will go down this low. Bictcoin has traded between the mid 400's and the lower 700 range all year (post gox). I don't personally see it going much lower then the mid to low 400 range (
in the past it has always rebounded strongly when it got to these levels).
The problem with that statement is that eventually, you run out of buyers. Everyone who bought the last 2 or 3 bounces in this range has made decent money IF they sold. But many (perhaps most) did not so they are full. Also, eventually you run out of suckers and the buyers get beaten down until they are too wary to buy at these prices again and again.
The main point I am trying to make here is that just because it has done this before, does not mean it will continue to do the same. Many traders who use trend lines will tell you that a trend lines get broken on the 4th test. So they all fail to hold at some point. Even though it may not last long (or it might) a spike that gets through still counts and that is all that is needed to break a trend.