Post
Topic
Board Mining speculation
Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year
by
BurtW
on 02/09/2014, 04:29:02 UTC
When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days.

Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days.

Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days.

Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get:

Code:
                                Hash Rate   Power      Energy            Cost        Cost
     Date          Difficulty        TH/s      MW         MWh        $/Period       $/BTC
---------  ------------------  ----------  ------  ----------  --------------  ----------
11-Sep-14      33,220,936,877     237,808     238      66,349      $6,634,853     $131.64
23-Sep-14      40,236,446,759     288,028     288      80,360      $8,035,984     $159.44
04-Oct-14      48,733,473,526     348,853     349      97,330      $9,733,002     $193.12
16-Oct-14      59,024,880,009     422,523     423     117,884     $11,788,392     $233.90
28-Oct-14      71,489,598,585     511,750     512     142,778     $14,277,833     $283.29
08-Nov-14      86,586,583,575     619,820     620     172,930     $17,292,988     $343.11
20-Nov-14     104,871,710,060     750,712     751     209,449     $20,944,876     $415.57
02-Dec-14     127,018,241,359     909,246     909     253,680     $25,367,960     $503.33
13-Dec-14     153,841,618,762   1,101,258   1,101     307,251     $30,725,098     $609.62
25-Dec-14     186,329,486,300   1,333,819   1,334     372,135     $37,213,544     $738.36
05-Jan-15     225,678,056,071   1,615,491   1,615     450,722     $45,072,202     $894.29
17-Jan-15     273,336,153,086   1,956,646   1,957     545,904     $54,590,430   $1,083.14
29-Jan-15     331,058,561,407   2,369,846   2,370     661,187     $66,118,694   $1,311.88
09-Feb-15     400,970,635,767   2,870,303   2,870     800,815     $80,081,465   $1,588.92
21-Feb-15     485,646,557,708   3,476,447   3,476     969,929     $96,992,858   $1,924.46
05-Mar-15     588,204,117,648   4,210,593   4,211   1,174,756    $117,475,554   $2,330.86
16-Mar-15     712,419,512,763   5,099,775   5,100   1,422,837    $142,283,732   $2,823.09
28-Mar-15     862,866,387,600   6,176,732   6,177   1,723,308    $172,330,835   $3,419.26
08-Apr-15   1,045,084,236,901   7,481,119   7,481   2,087,232    $208,723,207   $4,141.33
20-Apr-15   1,265,782,371,309   9,060,961   9,061   2,528,008    $252,800,823   $5,015.89
02-May-15   1,533,086,956,002  10,974,431  10,974   3,061,866    $306,186,635   $6,075.13
13-May-15   1,856,840,218,301  13,291,983  13,292   3,708,463    $370,846,321   $7,358.06
25-May-15   2,248,962,841,151  16,098,949  16,099   4,491,607    $449,160,670   $8,911.92
06-Jun-15   2,723,892,885,897  19,498,682  19,499   5,440,132    $544,013,236  $10,793.91
17-Jun-15   3,299,117,405,623  23,616,363  23,616   6,588,965    $658,896,517  $13,073.34
29-Jun-15   3,995,816,323,188  28,603,604  28,604   7,980,405    $798,040,547  $15,834.14
10-Jul-15   4,839,642,281,734  34,644,038  34,644   9,665,686    $966,568,646  $19,177.95
22-Jul-15   5,861,665,181,962  41,960,074  41,960  11,706,861  $1,170,686,065  $23,227.90
03-Aug-15   7,099,516,184,307  50,821,092  50,821  14,179,085  $1,417,908,463  $28,133.10
14-Aug-15   8,598,773,298,472  61,553,356  61,553  17,173,386  $1,717,338,634  $34,074.18
26-Aug-15  10,414,639,578,109  74,552,032  74,552  20,800,017  $2,080,001,680  $41,269.87
07-Sep-15  12,613,975,712,232  90,295,733  90,296  25,192,510  $2,519,250,952  $49,985.14

In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1