Your macro views are remarkably similar to my own.  The demographic cycle in particular is very compelling to me.  I see fascism as the dominant economic and political paradigm, rather than socialism.  Bread and circuses for the masses, the dole for the the underclass, subsidies to sop and co-opt fractious demographics, while structural factors are crafted to drain the shrinking productive classes of wealth, and concentrate it with laser focus in the hands of the two major power centers:  The deep state, and the financiers.  Fiat slavery seems the clearest and most explanatory name for the dominant global system, a serfdom crafted to the tolerance parameters of the indoctrinated bourgeoisie.  But the oxygen has been consumed.  Flows upon which the homeostasis depends can no longer be supported.  Leveraged structures must collapse.  Debt must be destroyed.  Rigidities must be pulverized, so that the system can be reshaped into something capable of surviving with the current resource profile (including the ruins of the old among those resources).  Average joe is just cannon fodder on that scale.

The opposing case (bullish risk, now and forever) is that central banks determine asset prices now, not markets, and, as a result of the dominant economic theories of their generation, will not allow what they miscast as "deflation" and its spiral boogeyman.  We are living out the consequences of the lessons learned by misinterpreting the history of the great depression through Keynes-colored glasses.  As long as it is common knowledge that the central planners are omnipotent, the kabuki continues. (Although, the actors beneath their costume robes become increasingly gaunt and weak with each new act.  When the first principal character can no longer mumble his lines, the plot thread will be lost.)

War may crush those old bones very quickly.

That said, I find it difficult to time the macro events.  It is even difficult to recognize them, through the crafted storylines of crony corporate journalism, and increasingly difficult to recognize them through the astroturfed agit prop and mental flak of the infected internet. Difficult, and exhausting.

For estimating asset values on short and medium term scales, what I find most productive, in terms of timing, is gaming scenarios, estimating driver events, and tracking the over-extension of correlation schemas, responding to their breakdown.

In BTC, the eventual listing of COIN is a likely watershed.  It enables but does not enforce a massive burn of fiat, beyond anything previously seen.  Once that channel is open, almost any triggering event has the potential to create a stampede and superbubble.  Until then, it's just drip drip drip mining inflation, overlaid on chaos, overlaid in turn on top of a long-term network growth which looks less exponential each day.

The intraday moves tend to be anti-dollar, pro-commodities, but not so much on a daily scale, where uncorrelated jumps enforce the chaos.   I say uncorrelated only because I don't know with what, if anything, they correlate.