No developed nation has a hope of paying down debt significantly at market rates, so market rates must be destroyed and central banks buy the nations' debt.
That is only an extension or delaying tactic. At the end game, they always raise taxes. Only completely failed states give up their power by hyperinflating.
Europe and Japan will print now while the rest of the world stops and allow long-term rates to rise. This is leading us to the big crash 2015.75. Armstrong's model based on all recorded history of what happened.
Pension funds don't fold, much. They restructure perforce instead. The dominant trends are to shift to equities or to increase leverage in order to achieve target returns. The former is rather incompetent, if you ask me. The latter aligns the funds with policy, which works until it doesn't. I would not enjoy being responsible for a large amount of other people's retirement money, at this juncture.
As empires collapse, the pension funds do fold (or restructuring which is effectively a non-payment). Inability to pay the pensions of soldiers lead to the collapse of Western Rome. The taxes were raised until nothing was profitable. This is how empires collapse, not in hyperinflation.
Tangentally, this is why Monero is not good enough for me. We are facing a horrific beast.The present regime of falling oil (probable u.s./saudi collusion punitive to russia) falling gold (probable central bank futures sales), rising rates, rising dollar is well suited to positioning for war, while retaining economic policy objectives.
Agreed. Armstrong's model predicted this.
But rates should fall again soon enough, with a risk-off trade when more geopolitical risk becomes inescapably obvious.
Rates will fall in Europe and Japan as the last gasp attempt to prevent the contagion, but Russia and West are already moving into war in Ukraine. By November it will be full blown conflict.
Rates are rising in the rest of the West because central banks see capital fleeing Europe and emerging markets which is driving an asset bubble in the rest of the West. Also there is a calculation on how long QE can mathematically run and this was already met in the USA. That calculation is in one of my archived posts. I forget the exact point of it. Do you want me to try to find it?
So we are entering the point of no return. The next stage is war and confiscation. The soft gloves of lowering rates are nearly exhausted.
btc is correlating to falling risk, falling hard money, but there is no flight to safety happening yet, more like obedient alignment to policy.
I posit that
Btc was correlated with the speculative bubble that drove the silver and gold bubbles to peak in 2011. Btc's bubble was the follow-on effect as the hard money and libertarians moved on to the "next big thing".
We exhausted that demographic. Btc is unable to pull significantly from demographics outside its core. Every where it gains a little bit of traction (e.g. Brazil and Argentina) is slapped by back down (e.g. China, Ecuador and State of New York).
Even I see the Bitcoin whitepaper mentioned gold to suck in our libertarian demographic. And Nick Szabo had been writing about a
conceptual "bit gold" which was basically a description of what became Bitcoin. Nick Szabo is either Satoshi or his blog post inspired the NSA or whoever the group is that was "Satoshi".
With Yellen at the helm they will print again soon enough. Taking away the punchbowl is not going to sit well in equities.
Armstrong's model disagrees and I concur with his model.
Conceivably Armstrong might. Although, I am very skeptical of his technical claims, having seen powerpoints attributed to 1997(?) but authored with Office 2003.
Please provide me evidence and I will email him. He reads my email. He has 80,000+ readers. Someone would be making such proofs available on the internet if it has any credibility.
So what he opened an old office file in a newer version to create a blog post? Does that refute all the attendees none who have refuted his claim as far as I know? Shoud I advise him to use instead open orfice in the future.
I notice that 1000 NATO troops are going to Ukraine for exercises now. That's a temperate but firm little escalation. Did someone with a very small brain discover they had a backbone?
The dog & pony show on display in Ukraine is an intentional escalation to take the public's attention away from the true blame for this global economic implosion and from the power elite who are benefiting.