Looks like the current trend line according to the formula described in the quoted below post would be around 2300.
Quite a divergence.
rpietila - when are you going to retire this formula? Or maybe you already have done that? Do you still expect the price to follow it?
Everyone is on vacation while we reached -0.5 Log from the S.reeds trendline
It's already 30 weeks after last ATH (last one ,,consolidation period'' took 27 weeks)
If market would repeat itself identically we would need one more high volume sell-of to trigger run-up, if I made right assumptions?
Shameless repost of my new research, originally in the Trendline thread:
I just updated my personal sheet tracking these things. The parameters of that one:
- flat price 0.005 assumed until Mt.Gox opens
- for 7/2010-2012, Mt.Gox prices used
- for 2013, three exchanges
- for 2014, Bitstamp only
- daily VWAP
- first day 2009-1-3, the first day of Bitcoin; last day 2014-7-9, the 2014th day of Bitcoin
The exponential trendline for this time:
USD/BTC = exp(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * D), D being the number of days
R^2 = 0.934183
The trendline is at $1583.
At $623, we are currently -0.405 units below the trend.
For comparison, the max we ever went below the trend prior to the first 2013 runup, was -0.573.
Prior to the second 2013 runup, -0.341.
The maximum downside (greatest drop in price experienced ever after) after a day when price has already been at a low of -0.4 or lower, is -19%, experienced in 2012-10-5 to 2012-10-26, when the price dropped from $12.75 to $10.31.
This is comparable to the price going from $623 to $504 this month. This would put us on par with the maximum historical downside from already such a low point as $623 represents in the trendline.
I will not go to the upside calculations now, just leave the closing remark:
TL;DR: Historically, buying at a price such as this has represented a very low risk entry point with very limited downside in dollar terms.
Historically, selling at a price such as this (for any other purpose than covering immediate needs) has been counterproductive, as it is very likely that you will get a better or at least not much worse a deal; 1, 2, 3, 6, or any number of months in the future.