if western Russia, the Russian embargo will stop supplying gas to western
And in 3 months Russians will starve to death as oil and gas make 60% of their economy.
90% of medicine comes from the west , 70% of cars come from the west. 90% of passengers planes come from the west.
Half of the drilling equipment comes from the Netherlands and Germany.
Do they eat medicine, cars and passenger planes (regarding your words that Russians will starve to death)? You also seem to be forgetting that Europe would be freezing but for Russian gas (and the winter is coming, yeah). So it cuts both ways, and you don't know which side would cut sharper and deeper...
Without selling gas and oil they will have no money to buy one loaf of bread
. Remember what happened at the last serious drop in oil prices? We said bye bye to the URSSI thought domestic agriculture was intended for providing a loaf of bread to the populace (and meat for that matter). Ok, I guess you would say that Russian agricultural sector is depressed, and I would partly agree to this. But look, if sanctions (or counter-sanctions) prohibit imports there is no more food imported, i.e. no more price competition that suppressed the domestic agricultural sector, right?
You just can't start producing more food out of the blue.
It's not like in the car industry where you can even in the middle of December buy another automatic line and start the work.
And when it comes to cattle , how do you see an increase in meat production in less than two years from now on?
Farmers will need more money to buy land , tractors and to invest in storage capacities... they will have to take loans for this.
But with the food ban being applied for 1 year , who will take the risk in this?
If there will be an agreement over Ukraine next week and the bans are lifted ?
Meat is not only cattle. It is also fish, chickens and other small game. So it won't require two years, and I hope you won't argue with this. Besides that, there are many established partners selling, say, beef to Russia (such as Argentina and Brazil) and which would be just happy to fill in the lack...
And if the bans are lifted in the end, there may be no more room for European farmers in the Russian food market, sorry ("not the only pebble on the beach")!