Of course XMR + Put is superior from a probability of profit standpoint (as shown by your lengthy explanation of put/call parity), but naked XMR is better still. People aren't (as far as I can tell) buying calls based on POP, they are buying them for the leverage. In this case, it's quite costly.
XMR + Put is equivalent payoff to Call + BTC as i have argued.
Naked XMR is neither better nor worse from profitability perspective, it's just a different risk profile. XMR has downside risk that the Call payoff does not have.
My point was just to say that the *optionality* of the call option is much cheaper if you buy it through Put + XMR instead of buying the outright calls.
With regard to leverage it is true that a *naked Call* is higher leverage than *XMR + Put* however the premium you pay on the optionality does not
justify it in my eyes. For the same reason, the break-even level for XMR + Put is lower than the naked Call. Therefore, if someone is a bit short on capital AND really want to play options AND wants to target maximum leverage they should probably buy a combination of Call, Put and XMR to optimize their break-even/leverage metrics.
[bolded quotes]
I understand. I was not talking about things from a profitability perspective, only probability of profit. Long underlying is always higher than any form of theta negative strategy.
I think you've really nailed it with the second bolded quote. Other people might not see it that way, particularly OTM call buyers. In the (unlikely) case of underlying --> moon, the long call always outperforms everything else.
Does underlying + Put k normally have the same risk profile as call k? Yes!
Is one of them therefore mispriced? Yes! (only time will tell; both could certainly be mispriced as well)
It should not go unnoticed that general sentiment in the XMR community is very bullish. Given normal put/call parity, long call is a superior position to married put. Risto is making people pay, which is his prerogative. With how bullish (some) people are, I'd even go as far to argue that it's more about long leverage than anything else. From that perspective, the XMR + Put position is actually the worst of them all.
Contrarily, if you're just expecting lots of volatility (relative to IV of the put you'd be buying), then XMR + Put is the best position available (long straddle/strangle could be argued as well depending on your upside bias/vol expectation).
(I think you probably understand these things already, but others may not.)