while I agree that number of users is increasing exponentially (so far), the number of transactions is NOT, which was posted earlier.
Possible explanation-the absence of accurate statistics, but then the whole argument is mute.
Possible explanation-the absence of accurate statistics, but then the whole argument is mute.
We don't actually have a reliable way to measure adoption. The Metcalfe Value plots I prepare assume that it's correlated with the number of TXs per day and the number of unique addresses used per day. The plot below shows that both of these two proxies for the number of users has indeed been increasing exponentially (along with bitcoin's market cap). Today it appears that a "concave down" function would fit better than a straight line, but late last November people were arguing for a concave up (super exponential) model. So we must wait and see. The ups-and-downs away from exponential growth look like noise to me and are not yet significant enough to invalidate the model.
http://i.imgur.com/SHtly3v.png
I agree re waiting, but by December it should be clear (at least short term), don't you agree?
In addition, Steve Reed's graph shows -0.7 deviation from expectation (lowest yet).
I was basing my assertion on prior OP post:
