this entire discussion just *reeks* of confirmation bias with everybody trying to find evidence that their decision was correct
Personally, my greatest hope is that someone will prove my reasons incorrect, to my satisfaction. It would allow me to avoid the longer-term consequences of the error. There is a substantial difference between reasons and rationales.
My standards are fairly high, but not extreme. I'm happy with probabilistic arguments, if I have some epistemic color on the actual distributions involved.