Here is my prognosis:
The chances of sub $50: only 10% chance
sub $100: 20% chance
70% chance of:
"Final capitulation" .... looks to stand at around $120-$250
The chances of sub $50: only 10% chance
sub $100: 20% chance
70% chance of:
"Final capitulation" .... looks to stand at around $120-$250
WHEN?
Bitcoin to 120 dollars is a 70% certainty! Someone tell Paypal! These threads are ridiculous.
100% certainty... eventually. Bitcoin is not the future. It may be a stepping stone to it. It won't be adopted by the masses without major, major changes.
Why? The general public will be using web wallets and phone apps. These are already several iterations along already. In five years everyone in a country with electricity will have some form of smart device which holds their wallet. Bitcoin just has to survive and it will rise up. (IMO
)If nothing else, public relations. We have shitty exchanges (and it isn't just Gox, it is the flash crashes, the bot malfunctions, the front running, and the improper price placement on stop losses). We have drama. We have zealots. We have prices that sound high to the common man's ear (if you just moved a decimal place then it would be $47 per... and that doesn't sound so bad... that isn't how the common man thinks). We have Wall Street... and that's not a good thing (see everything that has happened in the world since the mid-1980s and the recent clusterf---s on the exchanges). We don't have a quality black market at present (OpenBazaar may fill that void). Retailers are, more or less by law, not allowed to maintain their profits in Bitcoin so adoption actually means sell pressure (if we can survive that then maybe, but that could take years). And other things but I have to go.