About how impossible mateo's winning were.. I made a few mistakes when computing the prob and corrected it. Sorry ! Since it was discussed here and here, I thought I'd come back.

The approximation actually gives a probability of winning +600 btc like mateo did of about 1 in 1 to 10 millions... (for extreme values like here final result is highly influenced by the computers numerical methods and their accuracy).

Whatever... mateo cheated. And fuck the scammer.

See what a hundred thousand simulations of normal bets should have left for profit (histogram=simulations, curve=model), the max profit was 424. Play with the numbers...