Future contracts will break even, it is a mater of how many weeks. Again, this word (never) is problematic. I dont want to discuss spread sheets and such
I'm trying to have a factual conversation about the likelihood of August contracts breaking even. I respect your opinion that you think August contracts will break even, but you are not supporting it with any facts.
August contracts will break even. but the amount of weeks to achieve this is rising.
If you bought in August, your looking at 30 to about 32 weeks, a ten or twelve week jump from buying in April. I predicted the April breakeven long before it happened, i know that even if my math is way off, say it 35 weeks to break even from August, I then am way more accurate in my calculations than what I hearing out here. (never)
No that doesn't add up.
Ok, so you did some math. I would be curious to know more.
Are you taking past contracts and calculating how long they took to break even? Are you then taking that data and extrapolating future break-even dates? Are you assuming that difficulty increases will decrease or remain constant? What is the average difficulty increase that you predict over the next 30 weeks? These details would go a long way in helping me understand how you arrived at your opinion.