(...)
Nakowa also played at full Kelly while Matteo only at half Kelly, so it's much more improbable. As far as I remember Nakowa didn't win 85% of house bankroll like Matteo but it was only around 15%.
That Kelly troll shit has to end! .. it does NOT apply to a gambler gambling in a casino with a positive house edge!
Kelly definitely works when the system is rigged for a particular bettor
yes, but the assumptions here are that Mateo is a normal user. And that within those bounds, what are the chances of this legitimately happening. Thus we can conclude whether or not, mateo is a legitimate user or not.
Also, I believe GeoRW was just pointing out the fact that Nak was playing at 1% and Mateo was playing at max 0.5%. Thus mateo's run is even more legendary/improbable, as he was able to win 5-6x more of the bankroll than Nak was, at a lower max bet. Amazing luck, or suspicious? I'd say suspicious.
I was another late withdrawing investor losing about 7BTC. I am keen to speak with others about what they plan to do next, if anything. Quickly reviewing this thread it seems the following lost a significant percentage of their investment due to Mateo, I'm sure there are many more.
jh7phone -8.5 BTC
Qconnet07 (me) -7 BTC
Martijnvdc -0.251 BTC
Dabs -1.14 BTC
nicolaennio -0.09 BTC
Would other ex-investors be interested in meeting in an IRC room/somewhere else to discuss further at some point soon? I am on GMT.
I feel that one clear voice from a collective will be more effective that individual support tickets, all of which are just going to ignored/deleted.
I find it highly suspect that Manl/Gerry won't release Mateo's betting data for audit and see this as good as an admission of guilt. Their lack of action to halt betting and quick processing of Mateo's withdraw, coupled with the coincidental 500BTC bankroll that suddenly appeared, all scream of foul play at the expense of investors.
Would others be interested in discussing our options further in private? Please let me know and we can agree a time and day.
From the grapevine, someone lost 80-90BTCs because of this. he's probably pretty pissed off. If that specific user wants to speak up, he should add his name to the list.