Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
mooncake
on 11/09/2014, 07:57:29 UTC
I'm quite amazed where these huge sellers get their coins from.

Remember those 850.000 bitcoins "lost" on the MtGox? Somebody has the private keys of those BTC. Ask yourself what would you do if that was you. Would you hold all of them, or would you convert some to the fiat?

I would be wary of exchanges. If you look at Stamp, for over a month, you see huge sell walls placed at intervals. And to withdraw that much of fiat, the exchange would require your identity and bank account. So, the key person to know why the huge btc quantity of sell limit order is the exchange owner.

Many people are speculating why the market has been so bearish. If the bitcoin news websites are smart, they would bug the exchange owners for answers. Think about it, all we can see are just the orders and transactions. The exchange owners are able to see who are placing these orders and making these huge transactions.

For exchange owners to publicly reveal the identity of their customers would be a breach of TOS and probably illegal. Who would trust such an exchange? You can assume if somebody is dumping the MtGox "lost" coins he would have bigger worries than being doxed by the exchange.

If you analyse in which way you would dump some of the 850K (-200K) of MtGox coins if they would be yours, one can come to conclusion it would happen exactly as it happening now. Try to keep the price as stable as you can, don't bring it down more than you have to. Disperse over several exchanges. Drop more on the good news. Take your time to analyse the buying patterns on the exchanges and adjust the selling patterns to their customers. Aren't that what we are seeing?

Consider the scenario a Coindesk reporter interviews the exchange owner. Instead of providing the identity of the seller, the owner can give a general description of the seller, for example, an individual, a payment processing company, a miner or a hedge fund. Then the community will be able to know what and who in general cause this bearish market.

I agree it is not ethnical to reveal the seller identity but if many reporters bug them, chances are they are likely to drop some hints.

I still do not think the hacker will sell in exchange. No way he will provide his identity.