Prediction: No dividends before gen4 is taped out, tested, and friedcat is satisfied with the result.
If gen4 fails to satisfy friedcat, the funds that could have been used to pay out dividends will be used for a contingency plan.
This would be a reasonable thing to do. It might also partially explain why no divs have been paid out in August: Funds are being retained a bit longer, in case the imminent tape-out of gen4 fails or fizzles.
Disclaimer: I'm pulling this theory out of my ass.
This is a reasonable idea. And a good business decision as well.
That would be horrible for shareholders. You do know how much time passes from tape-out till you can actually test the chip?
No. I actually don't.
Me neither, but I'd like to know. Why does it have to be longer than a few weeks?
For AM's Gen3 tape-out happened around mid to late January 2014. Testing was done on March 28th/29th. So that was approx. 8-9 weeks from tape-out (which is very quick). I am not an expert in this field but others stated that this normally takes a minimum of 3 months.
EDIT: To avoid any misunderstandings:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tape-outTape-out of gen3 was sometime in February, though I think we never got a confirmation on the exact date:
The tapout date is pulled back to early Feburary due to further modifications for robustness and stability, but mass delivery date is still March.
So it seems that AM was very quick indeed in that respect.
Something else that I haven't seen mentioned in a long time is the following:
4) The next gen chips, BE300, are likely to be compatible with BE200 with respect to pinouts and package. Therefore all efforts on BE200 based designs are always useful in the long term.
To me, this means that the transition from gen3 products to gen4 products should be quite fast as well.