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You do understand that consumer adoption follows media exposure, right?
You do understand that consumer adoption follows media exposure, right?
So, just to eliminate any doubt in my mind, since last year we had:
1. Increasing media exposure.
2. Increasing adoption.
3. Falling exchange rate.
∴ If (1) and (2) continue, the exchange rate is going to continue on its present trajectory, i.e. falling.
I don't remember using the word price in that sentence.
I would say personally that adoption is lagging compared to merchant integration, and speculators are selling more than buying resulting in us being at the bottom of a bear market. I think merchant adoption is actually largely irrelevant to the price at current levels of trade.
User adoption is rising and once the price turns and heads back up past 800 a new larger tranche of users will discover how easy it is to buy, save and use bitcoin. They and you will drive the next bubble. As you well know it is a price cycle - not a strict mathematical formula.
Your points would have been equally valid last year after the run to 266 and dive to 60, for a time. Shortly afterward they became very wrong indeed, as I suspect they will again.