Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD?
by
djangocoin
on 12/09/2014, 14:19:41 UTC
A price of $252,000 in era 0 (50 BTC/block) would have caused the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 30% of all the electrical power produced on the planet.

A price of $252,000 in this era, era 1 (25 BTC/block) would cause the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 15% of all the electrical power produced on the planet.

So, in order to keep the Bitcoin network from attempting to consume more than 1% of all the power produced we should all hope that the price does not reach that level until at least era 5 - about 2029 or so.

Of course all of these numbers are rough "back of the envelope" estimates:

Code:
   Original target     Subsidy   Est Fees  Power % of total world
Era   starting year   BTC/block   BTC/hour     GW power production
--- --------------- ----------- ---------- ------ ----------------
  0            2009 50.00000000 0.00000000 680.40           29.44%
  1            2013 25.00000000 0.00000000 340.20           14.72%
  2            2017 12.50000000 0.00000000 170.10            7.36%
  3            2021  6.25000000 0.00000000  85.05            3.68%
  4            2025  3.12500000 0.00000000  42.53            1.84%
  5            2029  1.56250000 0.00000000  21.26            0.92%
  6            2033  0.78125000 1.31250000  13.61            0.59%
  7            2037  0.39062500 3.65625000  13.61            0.59%
  8            2041  0.19531250 4.82812500  13.61            0.59%
  9            2045  0.09765625 5.41406250  13.61            0.59%

Do you take into account that in the future we will be generating a lot more power, have lower power & better performing computers? or are you assuming we're generating the same power today as we will in 2045?