Risto:  I appreciate the scenario that you describe with the dice; however, I remain a little bit puzzled why you seem to want to continuously get your Monero book digs in - when in reality BTC is the ONLY "real" game in town. 

Maybe down the road this will change and Monero or some other Alt may come to play a fairly significant role in the crypto space.. ... In the mean time,  a very large share of the investments (including mainstream investors) are going into BTC and this does NOT seem likely to change (or move over to another coin) for quite some time - at least several years the way that things seem to be currently going. 

Also, there is NO real fundamental flaws with BTC even though one or more of some of these other cryptos may have some features that would be difficult to have assimilated into BTC.

In the end, I believe that the odds are greater than 50% that BTC will surpass $5k per BTC.... but it remains possible that it could take a few more years to get above that price level.

I don't have exact numbers in my head at the moment (whether it is 60% or 75% or some other number) b/c I do believe that it remains difficult to place exact numbers on the probabilities when there are so many factors and so many actors.  I suspect that   it could take anywhere between 1 month and 2 years to move BTC prices to the next ATH..... and probably higher likelihood that such a move above previous ATH would take place within the next 6-9 months.