I think it's safe to assume these two addresses indeed belong to Asicminer and are used to receive mining payouts. I gathered these payouts and looked at 10 day intervals to get a rough estimate for Asicminer's hashrate and hashrate growth:
Please note: Total network hashrate and coins mined by the whole network are very rough estimates.
Hashrate growth / Deployment speed doesn't look bad at all. I'm very excited for the next few days.
Great first post! Hopefully your analysis is correct.