Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
Biodom
on 15/09/2014, 20:32:32 UTC
In Casino, the games of chance are also games of -EV. Now imagine that you could play a simple dice with the following payout table, but the play is limited to one round:

4-6: pay back 10:1
2-3: no effect
1: lose your bet.

How much would you bet?

How often can I play?

Everything!

It is better to split cash (1/3..6) and do as much tries as possible.

in that hypothetical only ONE round was allowed, hence it is more about maximizing profit/minimizing potential loss in a single roll.
Very interesting stuff.
I think that I instinctively used this approach in my very speculative investements (without knowledge about Kelly formula).
Last year it worked great, this year-not so much, but losses are limited by design.