When it will be about to be launched you will recognize it by the increased liquidity in the books of the exchanges. At that point you'll know that the launch is a matter of days.
If it launches the regulators will have to announce they have approved it first. Once the regulators either reject, or approve it they will announce their decision.
That's a good point. Lets watch both the books depth and the official news channels then. I don't think it can be regulated out at this point.