Number 2.
It has been confirmed that the NuBits network will have shareholders. Shareholders will be paid only in Peercoin. So Peercoin going back to it's per-announcement levels makes zero sense because as the NuBits network grows and starts paying out more and more dividends, more and more Peercoin will be used to pay the shareholders! In other words, Peercoin is going to be used for something far more than it ever has so far.
Also, for those who don't know what NuBits is about:
nubits.com is the site and countdown. All the information will be available there on Tuesday.
And this article gives a decent overview of the story:
http://www.coinssource.com/nubits-revealed-three-days/What kind of a jump in price could we expect PPC to make? Is it too hard to tell?
To $5. And everybody knows this.
$5 is completely possible, but that's close to 4 times its current value, and that's an unusually high 1-day jump for a mature crypto (show me examples if I'm wrong). Maybe PPC doesn't have the network effect that I think it has, and as such it is more susceptible to flash pumps than I think it is.
In any case, I'm increasing my PPC exposure ahead of the launch, but when NuBits goes live I'll have 75% of my PPC holdings in ask orders, mostly below $4. Regardless of how high it jumps immediately following launch, I'd be extremely surprised if PPC demand from NuBits will be enough to sustain PPC above $2 for long. I'll re-evaluate this opinion once I read the whitepaper, but right now I'm expecting we'll hit at least $3 in the coming week and be back below $1.50 two weeks from now.