I'm sure I am not going to become popular with my bearish sentiment here on this board full of bulls, especially when we just had that rally upwards. But I'll give it a try:

Up only if a whale decides to push us there, and only if those walls @ $465 and $500 (Bitstamp) belong to the whales so that they can be removed quickly in order to facilitate some quick price action upwards that finally triggers all those short margin calls.

But my guess is we will go down, even if we see another small rally beforehand. Buying action was surprisingly unimpressive after we dropped into the 370s, so it's probably going to be even worse now that we are back in the 440s - despite the paypal news, which is IMHO completely blown out of proportion and will probably fail to bring in a significant number of new buyers. So we'll probably get the same combination of slowly bleeding down together with some unexpected rapid dumps that we have seen in the last couple of weeks. This is still a bear market overall, and unless something fundamentally changes it's probably going to stay that way for the next weeks.

Next stop: 350s, maybe with a short-lived dip into the $320-$330 range. There we (and especially the whales) are going to find out if organic buying pressure will finally pick up, which would mean that the bottom is probably in. Otherwise we are going down even further into the 200s.

All IMHO, of course.