Re: [GUIDE] B's Moderated Biased & Opinionated Miner Sellers Trustworthiness Guide
WILL IT ROI or NOT ROI?
That is the real question consumers want the answer to at this point beyond the will they scam me or not.
There are growing concerns from all miners that 'ROI' could be hard or impossible to achieve by even the most reputable companies like AM, BitmainTech or SpondooliesTech. Make sure you invest more time in calculating potential returns before making any purchase from companies on the Thumbs Up list.
Sample of Debates on "Value":
This goes on in nearly every fabricator thread between Fabricator Fanboi's. What is really funny is the same people argue both sides in opposite threads. Pffft... funny.
but seriously home mining at this point is pretty much not a viable option.
So I take it you have a magic crystal ball too?
Mine says these can easily break even with cheap electricity.
lol, you are a joke
even with free electricity they won't ROI.remember they will start shipping in at least 2 weeks from now, you need to pay import tax in your country,and you also have to buy PSUs, cables etc.
you have all these for free ?
If you have to pay 25% import tax you are automatically disqualified from mining, sorry I had to break the news to you. And yes many people have free psus/cables but you can always buy cheap server psus for $25/kw.
If you've been following the difficulty you would know that the growth rate is slowing down not increasing and it's less than 15% average. The low btc rate will only add to the slowing.
Even in your unrealistic scenario where difficulty growth stays constant at 15% you can still ROI because the actual price of the 14TH is clearly 15btc not 23btc.
Same Debate Different Fabricator Thread on "Value":
Praising SP-Tech, maybe, but talking rubbish no. Since you refuse to show some examples I am sure that you, as an AM shareholder, have a different way of digesting the reality and the facts when presented to you and that's why you see it as talking rubbish. Until you will present some evidence of talking rubbish your statements are worthless for me.
Then why are you so shy to present yourself as an AM shareholder before giving mining advices? Wouldn't it be fair for everyone to know that you have a biased opinion just like you accuse me of having?
Voice of Reason on Value:
I think your first line is far closer to the truth of any ROI calculations than the link
Nobody knows how long it'll take for these to ROI (if ever) simply because nobody knows what's going to happen to USD/BTC exchange (if calculating ROI by fiat), nor the difficulty (if calculating ROI by either fiat or BTC).
But with the link in place, which is a highly optimistic estimate, there's specifically the issue of the difficulty. Right now it suggests break even by 2015/06/13. However, the next difficulty jump is in just 3 days.. (which is probably about as fast as you could get these sent your way if they even shipped right now), so click the 'next estimate' button, re-calculate, and hey presto... no more break even.
Additionally, if you bought $650 worth of Bitcoin right now at ~$400/BTC, you'd get 1.625BTC. According to the original calculation, it fizzles out after 2015/12/10, having given 2.44433BTC in revenue, or 0.81933BTC profit. At that time, the exchange is $833/BTC, so fiat profit would be $682.50. On the other hand, that 1.625BTC would at that time be worth $1,353, giving a $703.60 profit.
( It's actually a bit worse for the harware, as this excludes operating costs. )
So not only does that scenario seem doomed to fail due to the realities of the impending difficulty increase, it's doomed to fail because you'd be better off buying and holding the BTC.
As much fun as these calculators are for giving lower/upper bounds based on some numbers one plugs in, they're still inferior to a proper crystal ball
( The above is not a commentary on whether or not these will ROI - I'm with jimmothy on that one, get your own crystal ball. )
Notes from TheRealSteve:
That is the real question consumers want the answer to at this point beyond the will they scam me or not.
There are growing concerns from all miners that 'ROI' could be hard or impossible to achieve by even the most reputable companies like AM, BitmainTech or SpondooliesTech. Make sure you invest more time in calculating potential returns before making any purchase from companies on the Thumbs Up list.
Sample of Debates on "Value":
This goes on in nearly every fabricator thread between Fabricator Fanboi's. What is really funny is the same people argue both sides in opposite threads. Pffft... funny.
but seriously home mining at this point is pretty much not a viable option.why bother pay 14.9 BTC for these when they can only produce like 9-10 BTC ?
So I take it you have a magic crystal ball too?
Mine says these can easily break even with cheap electricity.
lol, you are a joke
even with free electricity they won't ROI.remember they will start shipping in at least 2 weeks from now, you need to pay import tax in your country,and you also have to buy PSUs, cables etc.
you have all these for free ?
If you have to pay 25% import tax you are automatically disqualified from mining, sorry I had to break the news to you. And yes many people have free psus/cables but you can always buy cheap server psus for $25/kw.
Quote
let's run a small simulation assuming everything will be in our favor, the small miner:
-only 15 % diff increase (which we all know will be much higher)
-14 TH/S
-free electricity
you will still be in a negative -7.7 BTC in more than 1 year from now on.after 1 year 14 th/s will be worthless
-only 15 % diff increase (which we all know will be much higher)
-14 TH/S
-free electricity
you will still be in a negative -7.7 BTC in more than 1 year from now on.after 1 year 14 th/s will be worthless
If you've been following the difficulty you would know that the growth rate is slowing down not increasing and it's less than 15% average. The low btc rate will only add to the slowing.
Even in your unrealistic scenario where difficulty growth stays constant at 15% you can still ROI because the actual price of the 14TH is clearly 15btc not 23btc.
Same Debate Different Fabricator Thread on "Value":
So you now admit that you were trolling and talking rubbish about competitors in their thread while praising Spondoolies?
Praising SP-Tech, maybe, but talking rubbish no. Since you refuse to show some examples I am sure that you, as an AM shareholder, have a different way of digesting the reality and the facts when presented to you and that's why you see it as talking rubbish. Until you will present some evidence of talking rubbish your statements are worthless for me.
I wasn't praising AM. In fact, the information I provided showed that the SP35 would be the most valuable miner if all delivery times where immediate, network hash rate was static, BTC price was static and cost of electricity was static. It also showed that the SP20 would be forth, with the S3+ B9 second and an AM Tube in third place. As it stands, the SP20 is just poor value. That's just how it is and nothing you or I say will change that. Only Spondoolies can fix it.
Then why are you so shy to present yourself as an AM shareholder before giving mining advices? Wouldn't it be fair for everyone to know that you have a biased opinion just like you accuse me of having?
Voice of Reason on Value:
Sorry but I paid good money for my magic crystal ball and I'm not about to give away prophecies for free.
But anyways here's a scenario where these could turn a profit: http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=29829733124&dcosts=650&diff_mincrease=15&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=
1480000&diff_mincreasedecrease=4&btcusd=400.11&dpowcon=1100&btcusd_
mincrease=2&pcost=0.05&calcweeks=32&dleadtime=2&action=calc
But anyways here's a scenario where these could turn a profit: http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=29829733124&dcosts=650&diff_mincrease=15&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=
1480000&diff_mincreasedecrease=4&btcusd=400.11&dpowcon=1100&btcusd_
mincrease=2&pcost=0.05&calcweeks=32&dleadtime=2&action=calc
I think your first line is far closer to the truth of any ROI calculations than the link
Nobody knows how long it'll take for these to ROI (if ever) simply because nobody knows what's going to happen to USD/BTC exchange (if calculating ROI by fiat), nor the difficulty (if calculating ROI by either fiat or BTC).
But with the link in place, which is a highly optimistic estimate, there's specifically the issue of the difficulty. Right now it suggests break even by 2015/06/13. However, the next difficulty jump is in just 3 days.. (which is probably about as fast as you could get these sent your way if they even shipped right now), so click the 'next estimate' button, re-calculate, and hey presto... no more break even.
Additionally, if you bought $650 worth of Bitcoin right now at ~$400/BTC, you'd get 1.625BTC. According to the original calculation, it fizzles out after 2015/12/10, having given 2.44433BTC in revenue, or 0.81933BTC profit. At that time, the exchange is $833/BTC, so fiat profit would be $682.50. On the other hand, that 1.625BTC would at that time be worth $1,353, giving a $703.60 profit.
( It's actually a bit worse for the harware, as this excludes operating costs. )
So not only does that scenario seem doomed to fail due to the realities of the impending difficulty increase, it's doomed to fail because you'd be better off buying and holding the BTC.
As much fun as these calculators are for giving lower/upper bounds based on some numbers one plugs in, they're still inferior to a proper crystal ball
( The above is not a commentary on whether or not these will ROI - I'm with jimmothy on that one, get your own crystal ball. )
this guy must be very dumb or be working for friedcat. which one is it ?
Neither - he's just handing out a healthy dose of reality; people asking about ROI need to do their own calculations/guesstimates. His initial statement holds true, regardless... even if it never ROIs, it never ROIs faster than anything else out there due to the favorable price/GHash and W/Ghash. Or is that slower... hmm.. brainhurt. which one is it ?Notes from TheRealSteve:
Quote
While the basic concepts (and some derivatives I didn't touch on in there, like mining vs holding, mining+periodical selloff vs mining+holding, etc.) apply to the big boys as well, I feel it does the current 'discussion' (antminer S4 vs AsicMiner Tube/Prisma vs cloud hashing .. there's probably more) a bit of a disservice by not delving more deeply into the more intricate parts;
For StickMiners, for example, the hashing performance vs price is generally so poor, that the energy efficiency vs hashing performance is a moot issue. For the big boys, to those who have the physical hosting, energy contracts, etc. in place, it is quickly becoming one of the primary deciding factors, along with things like depreciation, RMA turnaround, etc. Others would also certainly be more qualified to write an eloquent post on that (although I feel there should already be one out there). Though if I had to summarize for the general audience, I'd certainly agree that 'home mining' of Bitcoin, for net positive financial ROI, is dead for anybody who doesn't score a free miner and/or doesn't have to pay for power.
For StickMiners, for example, the hashing performance vs price is generally so poor, that the energy efficiency vs hashing performance is a moot issue. For the big boys, to those who have the physical hosting, energy contracts, etc. in place, it is quickly becoming one of the primary deciding factors, along with things like depreciation, RMA turnaround, etc. Others would also certainly be more qualified to write an eloquent post on that (although I feel there should already be one out there). Though if I had to summarize for the general audience, I'd certainly agree that 'home mining' of Bitcoin, for net positive financial ROI, is dead for anybody who doesn't score a free miner and/or doesn't have to pay for power.