Nothing wrong with the gist of your argument, OP, but also nothing particularly insightful...
Exemplified by:
Wonderful! We must be close to a market bottom. How is it that such a senior member of the forum suffers from such self-blindness, myopia, and unelephantine memory that they can truly believe that this time, this terrible bear market, is the true death of Bitcoin?
That "unelephantine memory" of the market, as you like to call it, extends to 2011, 2010 with some good will, and includes a whole 3 cycles of what you now seem to treat like a fractal. Actually, the 3rd one is still underway.
Point is, as you correctly remind the not-so-new newbies, a bear market doesn't mean the end of Bitcoin is near.
The other point is, as I remind the ever-so-confident crypto enthusiasts, this is still one big, extremely shaky experiment. The fact that it didn't fail the last two times doesn't provide a very strong basis for a frequentist type argument that it's not likely to fail at the end of the third "cycle".