I believe the math above is incorrect, because each 1 minute trial is independent (which is one of the requirements for a Poisson distribution). Thus we have four consecutive events, two are 4 blocks in a minute and two are 2 blocks in a minute. Thus the probability is as follows.
p = (14 / 4!e1)2 × (12 / 2!e1)2 ≈ 0.000795%, i.e. an occurrence expected roughly every 125,794 minutes which is every 87 days!
If my correction is correct, we do have evidence of something rarely occurring.
(edit: fixed quote)Man I'm tired of your fucking antics. Do you understand probabilities? Do you understand why your assumptions of independence go out the door? Do you understand that the
absolute probability of a complex event is
meaningless?
You start from the wrong place, do the wrong thing with that and arrive at a result that is
in itself meaningless.
What you're doing is either intentional FUD, delusion or skipping on meds. I had an enormous respect for you when you had the AM handle. Ever since the BCX saga began you've been (publicly) nothing but a reckless agitator, shouting EUREKA for every bullshit possible omen.
I have gap distributions and how these distributions change in time, I have autoregressors trained on the historical blockchain data, I watch 40 notes geographically around the planet and THERE IS NOTHING WRONG.
Now data or GTFO.
EDIT: Let me rephrase what you propose:
I have a fair coin and BCX asserted he can control the outcome of independent throws. So, I throw the coin 10 times and get 0001011010. Since the throws are independent, that should happen
only once in 1024 throws.
THERE MUST BE SOMETHING WRONG.
Of course that exact sequence likely never happened again,
and that proves nothing.
EDIT 2: Before you set your hair on fire and run like a headless chicken again, note that (1) this is only my opinion (2) I am not affiliated with the core team and (3) I am talking my books.