Picked the most recent 12.

http://chainradar.com/xmr/blocks

242773    14-10-02 05:35:56
242772    14-10-02 05:35:56
242771    14-10-02 05:35:42
242770    14-10-02 05:34:35
242769    14-10-02 05:32:59
242768    14-10-02 05:31:30
242767    14-10-02 05:30:29
242766    14-10-02 05:28:55
242765    14-10-02 05:26:41
242764    14-10-02 05:25:48
242763    14-10-02 05:25:24
242762    14-10-02 05:22:34

That looks roughly to be one occurrence of 3 in one minute, one occurrence of 2 in one minute, and 7 occurrences of roughly 1 per minute (slightly longer than a minute so my summary is not a precise model).

p = (1³ / 3!e) × (1² / 2!e) × (1¹ / 1!e)⁷ = 0.001%

So that is within a factor of 5, and note my model above isn't incorporating the effect of the slow blocks. So that anecdotally confirms your claim.

However the math above is wrong because for a perfect distribution the probability would be even less.

p = (1¹ / 1!e)¹² = 0.0006%

Instead we shouldn't be be comparing 12 gaps. Rather for the example above there are 9 intervals of one minute, so the probability for a perfect distribution over 9 intervals is as follows.

p = (1¹ / 1!e)⁹ = 0.01%

Thus the example we were considering was only 4 intervals of one minute. So let me test your claim again as follows.

242773    14-10-02 05:35:56
242772    14-10-02 05:35:56
242771    14-10-02 05:35:42
242770    14-10-02 05:34:35
242769    14-10-02 05:32:59
242768    14-10-02 05:31:30

That looks roughly to be one occurrence of 3 in one minute, and 3 occurrences of roughly 1 per minute (slightly longer than a minute so my summary is not a precise model).

p = (1³ / 3!e) × (1¹ / 1!e)³ = 0.8%

Sorry that fails your claim. Let's test another.


242767    14-10-02 05:30:29
242766    14-10-02 05:28:55
242765    14-10-02 05:26:41
242764    14-10-02 05:25:48
242763    14-10-02 05:25:24

That looks roughly to be one occurrence of 2 in one minute, and 3 occurrences of roughly 1 per minute (slightly longer than a minute so my summary is not a precise model).

p = (1³ / 2!e) × (1¹ / 1!e)³ = 1.25%

Sorry that fails your claim.

Now you see why independent verification is important. Ball in your court. What is my mistake?