Risto only said that there was a 4-8% likelihood this coin wouldn't live next month, that's not the same as BCX wouldn't attack. BCX could still attack but the coin may live on after that..
I am not convinced even he knew what random variable he was computing. You can try to quote him to correct my understanding, but when I read it the first time in private, I got confused. Perhaps I was tired.
And I don't remember it being carefully worded to make it clear he wasn't saying only 4 - 8% chance to be worried about BCX. Seemed to me to be saying, "never mind BCX".
(this soap opera is all about politics?)