Post
Topic
Board Archival
Re: delete
by
TheFascistMind
on 02/10/2014, 10:53:53 UTC
The probability of observing 4 blocks in a minute when those come from Poisson distribution (the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time and/or space if these events occur with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event - Wikipedia) is P(X=4) = 0.01532 (calculation here: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Poisson+distribution+X%3D4+mean%3D1). This makes it happen about 22 times a day which is once each 65 minutes on average. When the difficulty changes those numbers could slightly vary. We don't have any statistical evidence about something fishy occurring.

Did you miss the entire discussion about permutations of consecutive independent trials (i.e. not separated by 65 minutes each)?