But I am not yet convinced that anyone has a model that can tell us there is no evidence of an attack.
"No evidence" (to me, at least) just means "no evidence". I also have no evidence that I have cancer, yet it is still possible that I have cancer, I just don't have evidence.
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Edit: in short, don't confuse lucky hubris with repeatable science though I suppose your argument is speculators operate with imperfect information and form probabilities.
What I said is that CN will certainly be attacked in the future. Thus P("attack in any given day from now on") >> 0, and if P("BCX attack") is low enough, it does not make a meaningful contribution to the total propensity of attack, and, from a speculator's standpoint, is meaningless.
Speculators are interested in the total probability, and whether the price has over- or underreacted to its changes. XMR price is low atm, but imo it can mainly be attributed to overall weakness in all coins. When BTC starts to rise (or even before if it takes long), I have a conviction that XMR will be one of the best performing alts.
I try to move my contributions to other threads and the MEW however, so thank you for discussion!
