I have been thinking about a better model these past few weeks/months, I see it more as a decaying trendline of growth, (and just to give a ballpark idea, I'm guessing the trendline decays at around 30% growth rate per year).
Yes but this is not supported by anything but your imagination, so far. Maybe one day it will start slowing down, it did not yet, let's keep watching.
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Yes but this is not supported by anything but your imagination, so far. Maybe one day it will start slowing down, it did not yet, let's keep watching.
actually its supported by the actual trendline of bitcoin-
Year 1 of bitcoin it went from nothing to about $0.001
1 year later went to about $0.30 (a 300x increase)
another year later, it was about $6 (a 20x increase)
so I would say yeah, its supported by more than my imagination.
No, it's not. Even if you take the very first trades OTC, you won't get any pattern. Try it and present the picture if something fits, I tried.
I dont understand why you have so much trouble understanding this, not only is it logical that the exponential growth pattern slows over time (and not to mention, its INEVITABLE as the price will clearly not continue booming once adoption and usage is saturated (indeed then there will be massive competition) -- again not only is it logical, it is how the bitcoin growth pattern has functioned- we will probably never see the massive 100 fold or more increases a year again (but thats what was going on at the beginning),
heres a very crude depiction of the kind of decaying growth I'm trying to explain:
