http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/06/what-is-happening-to-bitcoin-right-now/Note the quote. Exactly what i was thinking. It makes the most sense of all theories i've heard yet it's the hardest to believe for most here for some reason.
"Seems pretty clear to me. An early adopter decided $300 is their breaking point. They want to cash out their $9m before they miss their chance. Theyre not experienced with handling this amount of money because theyve never been rich before; they just got lucky. They dont have the connections to sell off-market so they decided to sell the way they know and the way thats guaranteed to work: a Bitstamp sell order below market. They could maybe get more money with a more sophisticated trading strategy but who cares? Theyll take their $9m and retire on a beach somewhere for the rest of their lives.
Thats what Id do if I had 30,000 BTC right now and I bet you would too."
The guy was looking at the price going down every hour and basically panic sold. Below 300 was just too much for him. He was losing 10.000's per day.
He moved the coins to Stamp, right away did a 5k dump to secure a good amount of money (his aim was a million) and when he saw there were buyers he put the rest up at 300.
Perfectly reasonable explanation.
He wasn't the bearwhale. He also isn't buying back. Just a guy who wanted out. Yes, that happens.
Didn't he first put the wall up at $280, take it down for an hour or two, then put it back at $320? And it was getting nibbled at $320 too. Then it disappeared and came back at $300, where it was obviously got eaten until gone. I really don't understand why he moved it from $320 to $300 given that it was getting action at $320...*iff* he was (even poorly) rationally trying to price-maximize.
Obviously tossing up a single 30k wall doesn't make too much sense for someone who's primary objective was rationally selling that stash. But I can maybe buy the theory of an irrational/undisciplined/freaked-out holder *except* for the move from $320 to $300, since there was indeed stable action at $320.
The only fully rational motivation I can see is if he was trying to achieve a low but stable price for a period of hours during which to secure an OTC deal in the other direction. He tried $280, but it was unstably crashing the price, so he tried $320. He got good interest there with a stable price, so he decided to see if he could do better and keep things stable at $300. Price pegged right up against the wall without crashing, so he stuck with it, and priced a bigger buy deal on OTC based on a stable price of $300. ...
Who knows... Not all players are rational, so it could be anything. Whatever; even the big trades are insignificant noise in the long run.
That is probably the best potentially rational explanation I've seen.
Of course, it's possible that it was not a rational act, but this is a damn good take.