One truth about the inertia of groupthink, is that the participants can't even admit they are subject to it:
How convenient!
What about non-participants with zero access to the relevant facts, experiences, and decision making process?
Hey, I have a cool idea. Let's trade pop-psych wikipeida links. Here's one:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effectand a bonus!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_biasThe mistake you make is thinking (and with extreme misplaced confidence) that you understand the actual dynamics, when you don't.