I see no problem with having overall bullish ideas and bullish inclinations, however, I would NOT want to paint the spectrum of probable or possible so narrowly as to skew my vision.  So for example, maybe tagging probabilities to your various scenarios could be healthy... so long as you recognize that no scenario is 100% and also sometimes you may need to reconsider the probabilities that you have attached to certain events, and something that you had previously labeled as 95% probable is really only 80% probable, which is still good, but NOT so good as to put all eggs in that basket.